Dominant Radio Singles Are Still Dead
A related (and rather lengthy) blog post is HERE.
“If You Knew Him” by the Perrys sits atop the December 2009 radio airplay chart in Singing News. In August, the song debuted at number 70 on the chart with nineteen songs debuting higher. Debut positions actually mean little, since the point in the reporting cycle where a song was introduced to radio isn’t factored. The second month should be a better predictor of an eventual number one, but not so. In September 2009, “If You Knew Him” jumped to number 25, but four other second-month songs were ahead: Greater Vision had a second month song at number 12, the Talley Trio had one at number 16, the Browders were at 17, and Karen Peck & New River’s second-month song was at number 20. In October, the eventual number one song moved to number 13, but the Talley Trio and Greater Vision songs were still ahead. Even in November, the fourth month on the chart for all of these songs, Greater Vision’s song was still sitting a notch higher than “If You Knew Him.”
Is this typical, or is it an exception to the trend? Let’s look at two more.
November 2009’s number one, “Between 12 And 33″ by the McKameys, debuted in July at number 41, with songs by Brian Free & Assurance and the Booth Brothers having higher debuts. Those two songs stayed ahead in August and September. By October, the other two songs fell a couple of notches while “Between 12 And 33″ moved past them on the way to number one.
The number one song for October was “Be Not Afraid” by the Whisnants. This song debuted in May, so it took six months rather than five to reach the top spot. Three other songs debuted higher in May. “Everyday” by Triumphant Quartet debuted lower, but built enough momentum to overtake and pass “Be Not Afraid” in July. “Be Not Afraid” moved ahead again in August to number 4 with “Everyday” right behind at number 5. Each song moved up one more slot in September. “Everyday” moved up one more notch in October, but “Be Not Afraid” leaped all the way to the top position.
So what can we conclude? Overall, I think we can surmise that while these songs are certainly good, the data indicates that none of them were dominating hits. By dominating, I mean a song that debuts strong, leaves all the other songs in its wake by the second month, rises to number one by the third or fourth month, STAYS at number one for more than one month, and hovers near the top of the chart for a while after that.
What is the result? Well, we can hardly call a song that stays on radio for eight months a “throwaway” song, but in the grand scheme of things, when most music is interchangeable, it’s ultimately forgettable.
How do we test that theory?
Here’s a homework assignment:
See how many tunes you can hum from the Top 10 for each year. Go to the Singing News Top 80 chart page HERE. Click on a year, then select “For Year” for that year’s overall chart. Don’t click the link to play the song, and allow yourself just five seconds to remember the tune. Could you remember more songs from recent years or early years?
I was most consistent with 2000-2002 and with 2006, despite the fact that I’ve been reviewing Southern Gospel CDs and attending NQC every year for the entire decade.
UPDATE (10/26/09): Be sure to read Mickey Gamble’s response HERE.
Try this on for size. name a group today and try to name number one songs or just try to name as many songs as you can that they are known by. If I said In my Robe Of White, Goldcity comes to mind. Step into the Water, The Cats. Or I could name a group and then name a song. Kingsmen Excuses. Goldcity Midnight Cry. Dixie melody Boys, Antioch Church Choir. And the list goes on. But when I name a group of today that has been known for a few number one songs it gets harder to name them. The songs do not stick in your mind like the songs do from years back. Now somebody else may be able to name right off the bat. But when I have gave someone this little test they have a tough time too.
[...] Bruce Murray has a good post up currently about dominant radio singles being dead. That’s a flaw of the system, not of the [...]
Here’s something interesting to look into….how far apart are these singles being released?? Are artists giving radio one song to play for the better part of a year, or are they trying to release as many songs in one period as possible?? If you release 2-3 singles in a year, that gives you, at most, 4-6 months of exposure before your next song comes along and competes with it. Going by David’s stats, some songs take AT LEAST that long to reach the top of the charts. Let the songs linger for a while…
Starting with 2003 – I could sing or hum the tune to 9 out of the Top 10 songs of the year – but I listen to a lot of SG radio and music – so I may not be the best person to help with this study.
This goes back to a previous post.
When a group has a new CD coming out, I think they should go ahead and push two or three songs to radio at that time. Let the cream rise to the crop. Then, as Kyle says, let the great songs ride for as long as they’ll ride!
The labels put all their hopes on one song.
Chris,
As you’ve said, focusing on radio singles as you do should give you an edge, plus…you were kind enough not to say it, so I will…you’re several years younger than me.
That razor sharp memory won’t last forever. Enjoy it while you can!